Phosphen (@phosphenq)

2025-12-30 | ❤️ 1134 | 🔁 57

Weather bot on Polymarket ran $204 in t o$ 24,000

Bot trades only one type of market: London daily high temperature ranges

Every position is a variation of will the highest temperature fall between X-Y°F on date Z

Account has over 1,300 trades and a ~73% win rate

There are no single standout wins - pnl comes from repeating the same setup

Strategy targets how probability is split across adjacent buckets.

Bot buys narrow YES ranges priced around 20-30¢ and often spreads exposure across neighboring ranges

Live positions show simultaneous YES and NO exposure on adjacent buckets at very different prices

At resolution, several positions can go to 0

One bucket settles at $1 and covers the rest

Entire edge comes from exploiting bucket mispricing in these markets

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